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It seems likely that the first people to study probability were motivated by gambling.
This particular article will not prepare anyone to win at a casino. However, the foundation to avoid losing is to realize that the professionals already know the odds.
Fun [but long] article introducing basic mathematical concepts in probability…
Statistics Sells. That’s why it’s being used to also track well-being & happiness!
University of Pennsylvania duo Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers have analysed happiness surveys conducted in 132 countries. Their statistical study shows the impact of economic growth on happiness.
For example, on a 0-to-10 life satisfaction scale, respondents in Mali and Ethiopia place themselves between 3 and 4; residents of Egypt, South Africa and Portugal put themselves between 5 and 6; and people in Australia, the US and most other developed countries place themselves between 7 and 8. A 10 per cent increase in GDP buys as much additional happiness in a rich country as a poor one.
So, money can buy you happiness…statistically speaking!
Logical reasoning is the process which uses arguments, statements, premises and axioms to define weather a statement is true or false, resulting in a logical or illogical reasoning. In today’s logical reasoning three different types of reasoning can be distinguished, known as deductive reasoning, inductive reasoning and abductive reasoning based on respectively deduction, induction and abduction.
Mathemagician and professor Arthur Benjamin is spot-on in his belief that statistics must become the central branch of mathematics for the 21st century rather than the calculus centric view of the 20th century. This 3 minute video clip of him at TED is worth a watch.
What is a logical fallacy?
All arguments have the same basic structure: A therefore B. They begin with one or more premises (A), which is a fact or assumption upon which the argument is based. They then apply a logical principle (therefore) to arrive at a conclusion (B). An example of a logical principle is that of equivalence. For example, if you begin with the premises that A=B and B=C, you can apply the logical principle of equivalence to conclude that A=C. A logical fallacy is a false or incorrect logical principle. An argument that is based upon a logical fallacy is therefore not valid. It is important to note that if the logic of an argument is valid then the conclusion must also be valid, which means that if the premises are all true then the conclusion must also be true. Valid logic applied to one or more false premises, however, leads to an invalid argument. Also, if an argument is not valid the conclusion may, by chance, still be true.
For a more thorough discussion of logical fallacies and how to structure a logical argument, see the New England Skeptical Society’s article, How To Argue.
An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem
for the curious and bewildered;
an excruciatingly gentle introduction.
Your friends and colleagues are talking about something called “Bayes’ Theorem” or “Bayes’ Rule”, or something called Bayesian reasoning. They sound really enthusiastic about it, too, so you google and find a webpage about Bayes’ Theorem and…
Ivan Colic talks at TEDx about Afrographique; how African success stories can be communicated by data and statistics. He looks at how Africans are impacted by stuff like social networks, mobile, internet, etc. But the key is converting complex data into something that’s simple and engaging to communicate a story about Africans.